FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Double WYSKs: Emirates/Etihad, Little Japan/Giant Korea

WYSK – What You Should Know.

 

Emirates, Etihad.

Some surprises, almost shocks, in their latest financial years, some of which you may not have noted:

 

Emirates:

-Its revenue fell! By 4%.

-But it sold more seats – so we calculate its RASK (revenue per available seat kilometre) fell a jaw-dropping 15%.

 

Etihad:

-Also sold more seats, many more – +19%.

-But its capacity grew faster, so its RASK also fell, albeit only -1%.

-So is Etihad close to Emirates’ size! No way! Only 31%, so just a small airline despite its motley collection of seven associate/subsidiary airlines around the world.

 

 

Little Japan, Giant Korea.

Outbound travel from Japan has shown monthly growths this year, after two years of slowing. This has led many observers to assume that the market is solidly back as Asia’s second-largest outbound market after China.

 

Wrong.

 

Many missed the change in early-2015 when Korea (with a population less than half Japan’s – 50mn, 127mn) overtook Japan in terms of outbound market size. We signalled it (plus the fact that it came three months before we expected) but many missed it altogether.

 

Well, catch this.

 

On current trends, Korea’s outbound market will become 50% bigger than Japan’s over the next 12 months! That would be 24mn compared with 16mn.

 

A caveat, however – as usual. Although we think Korea will continue to grow strongly, growth will probably slow a little, and Japan will probably continue to pick up. So that could mean 22-23mn for Korea against as much as 19mn for Japan.

 

But that 50% difference looks likely to be achieved with all-year 2017 totals.

 

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.

 

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