FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Asean travel. State of the nations.

Traffic reports from the Asean ATF (Asean Tourism Forum), held in Manila last month. Different reports on these are published in the Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-reports, and on travelbusinessanalyst.com.

 

[] Brunei.

-Visitor arrivals. By air: 200,989 all-2014; 105,789 Jan-Jun 2015; growth not given. In 2015: about 26% were from MY, 17% CN, 9% ID; holiday visitors take a 40% share, business 19%, VFR 12%, but Others a puzzling 29%.

-Forecasts 3% growth in visitors for this year, but believes it could be 5-7% because of improved access, see below.

 

[] Cambodia.

-Visitor arrivals. 2015 4.8mn +6%. Forecasts +15% this year, leading to 6.5mn in 2018, 7.5mn in 2020. Main sources: VN around-20% share, CN 12%, LA 10%, KR 9%, TH 6%.

 

[] Indonesia.

-Visitor arrivals. The DMO (destination marketing organisation) puts 2015 total at “just over” 10mn, of which 45% were from Asean. This looks incorrect – as Jan-Nov was +4%, which would mean December grew 37%. Forecasts 12mn for this year, which would be +20% (on 10mn). Expects +43% visitors from CN this year.

-Tourism (understood to be the total visitor business) contributes 10% of GDP; DMO hopes to reach 15% by 2019.

 

[] Laos.

-Visitor arrivals. 3.43mn Jan-Sep 2015, +13%; estimate 5mn for all-2015, which would be +20%; forecast +10% for this year.

 

[] Malaysia.

-Visitor arrivals. Jan-Sep 2015: 19.1mn -7.6%. Top-5 markets were falling – SG -8%, ID -5%, CN -1%, TH -1%, BR -6%. Forecasts 30.5mn for this year (which would be +4.5% on our 29.2mn estimate for 2015). But in 2017 31mn, a tiny +1.6%. 2020 target 36mn (from 24mn in 2009; 1.5-times).

-Visitor arrivals in 2015 “not very good”, said DMO spokesperson. But this is a result of its longtime politically-charged policy to boost its visitor count above SG’s – by counting land arrivals from SG (SG does not do the same in the opposite direction). No longer is SG’s market is a boost; the fall from SG was 8.9%.

-Visitor spend. US$11.6bn (at US$1 to MR4.41) -1.3%. Forecasts US$23.4bn for this year. 2020 target US$38.1bn (US$12.0bn in 2009; 3.2-times).

 

[] Myanmar.

-Visitor arrivals. 2015 4.68mn +52%; by air 1.31mn +15%. DMO forecasts 7mn in 2020, which would be 8.4% average annual growth, which looks easily achievable. Opening for leisure tourism started in 2011.

 

[] Philippines.

-Visitor arrivals. 2015 5.36mn +10.9%. This year forecast +10%. Leading markets are KR, US, JP, CN, Australia. Cruise arrivals 69,802 +16.0% in 2015.

-New markets – looking at IN and Middle East. Looking at designating more outlets as halal-friendly.

-Visitor spend US$5.00bn, a disappointing +3.3%.

-10% of jobs are in the visitor business; we believe this is actually all-travel, not just inbound.

-IMF forecasts +6.0% GDP growth for PH in 2015, and +6.3% this year.

 

[] Singapore.

-Visitor arrivals. With just one month to count, SG’s cautious DMO still estimated full-year 2015 total with a wide range – 15.1-15.5mn, which means a 0-3% growth (Jan-Nov was +0.4%). We venture 15.2mn +0.8%.

-Of top-5 markets, falls (over Jan-Nov) for ID (#1 -11%) MY (#3 -5%), Australia (#4 -4%) markets. (CN +21%, IN +7%.)

-The DMO expects to issue its forecast for 2016 visitor arrivals this month. It is “cautiously optimistic” that growth will be better than 2015 actual – which in reality would mean another weak year.

-Visitor spend estimate for 2015 US$18.5-18.9bn (at US$1 to S$1.27) +0-2%.

-The F1 car race brings in about US$118mn annually* in visitor revenue from the event. *Bizarrely the DMO excludes 2009 data because the figures were low! As it has not excluded the highest, we have recalculated the annual average to US$100mn, based on the overall visitor fall in 2009. On our data, this indicates around 100,000 visitors annually – which looks good.

 

[] Thailand.

-Visitor arrivals. 2015 29.9mn +20%, with +8% forecast for this year. Counts 10,000 cruise passengers/year, which is small; improved facilities in Phuket should be ready this year.

-2015 visitor revenue US$45bn (at US$1 to B32) +23%. Forecasts US$48.8bn for this year. That would be +8.3%. When we noted that, given the push on luxury, that looked low, the DMO said it could be 10%. This, unfortunately, makes the forecasting look like a game.

 

[] Vietnam.

-Visitor arrivals. 2015 7.94mn visitors; only +0.2%, although AAGR over 10 years is a good 9.3%. Northeast Asia 50% share, Southeast Asia 16%, Asean 16%; Europe a good 15%. UK +5% overtook France -1% (this may have happened long ago, but the DMO does its analysis on passport breakdowns, not residence); KR +31%, and now 1mn visitors. Targets 8.5mn visitors this year, which would be +7.1%.

-Danang counted 4.7mn visitors +23% (domestic and international, registered in hotels) in 2015.

 

The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.