FOX ON FRIDAY

 

Fox On Friday: Cathay hides? China’s big-3 ALs. Singapore AL group . Japan travel agencies.

Following my trawl through key Asia travel stats for WYSKs (what you should know) , note the following:

 

Cathay; hiding

I wonder. Cathay reports its figures only with Dragonair . Probably for the same reason that Air France-KLM and Lufthansa-Eurowings report only combined totals – to hide one set of figures.

 

With first-Q3s seat sales at +8%, is most of C/D’s growth coming from D? In other words, is C in trouble – as Singapore Airlnes, see below?

 

 

China’s big-3 airlines

Yes, them again.

 

Their international traffic still growing at remarkable rate – First 3Qs seat sales, +19% for Air China, +29% China Eastern (the biggest), +31% China Southern.

 

CE, having overtaken Asiana and Japan Airlines , is now approachig Thai’s total.

 

 

Singapore Airlines group .

(Part of this is a repeat.)

How much longer, I wonder, before management at the Singapore Airlines group (which I auguringly abbreviate to SAG) admits that things are not going right. (SAG took 10 years to extract itself from the mistake of investing in Virgin Atlantic, so don’t expect something quick.)

 

As I have noted before, SAG’s Scoot should not have been established (Tiger shoule have been expanded instead), and Silk should be SAG’s low-cost-airline, not regional-airline/SA-sometime-substitute. Indicates are that Tiger is being suffocated out (of routes, to give to Scoot, and thereby, life).

 

For the first 3Qs, SAG’s seat sales grew under 1%! Poor old Tiger (as I have said, the airline is giving tigers a bad name) fell 5%, and seat sales for the mighty SA were flat . Scoot can thank Tiger’s fall for part of its growth – which is now running at sustainable rates monthly, and +15% YTD.

 

 

Travel agencies, Japan

How can they survive?

 

Well, maybe they can’t. I have been tracking outbound sales of the biggest bunch for some years. At one time it was the top-60, but now I am down to the top-49. And probably – as in the US – still going down.

 

Mile Post Japan gives me some figures to help my tracking. From this I reckon the still mighty (just about) JTB fell about 8% in the first half, even the smart bright HIS challenger -5%, and once-proud Hankyu a painful -16%. The top-49 -6%. That’s down 11% since 2000, and an even-worse -24% since 2010.

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.