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WYSK – What You Should Know.

Hong Kong & Macau from China, Malaysia Airlines, Tokyo airports, US visitors

*A report on these topics in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.

 

Hong Kong & Macau from China

Arrivals from China into Hong Kong have fallen in 3 of the past 7 months, but the total is still ahead 2% thanks to 32% growth in the Lunar New Year month. Worse news for Macau. Down in all months except that LNY month, and down 5% YTD.

 

 

Malaysia Airlines

It’s not getting any better. The fall in seat sales in June, -8%, was the biggest this year. That puts YTD -4%, and hard to pull back this year. New management of the ‘new’ airline will probably gain from the bad results in the last four months of 2014 (-8%).

 

DCB (Dead Cat Bounce; a phrase from the finance world) will probably mean growth Sep-Dec this year. But don’t be fooled; figures will still be lower than those for 2013, even if they are ahead on 2014. If you know how to play with figures, the game is easy.

 

 

Tokyo airports

No respite for Narita airport. Thru May (latest available) its passenger-count was down 11%, as Haneda airport grew 33%. Haneda is much smaller, but it has two runways and at these rates, it will count half Narita’s total by year-end.

 

 

US visitors

US 2015 visitor data has been absent until now. Therefore, more than usual information here:

-Q1 visitors 16.0mn +1.2%. Top-10: Canada -4%, Mexico +6%, Japan -7%, UK -3%, Brazil +8%, China +19%, Korea +16%, Germany +1%, France -15%, Australia -3%.

-March visitors 5.9mn + 0.2%. Top-10: Canada -6%, Mexico +5%, Japan -10%, UK +2%, Brazil -5%, China +19%, Korea +11%, Germany +6%, France -27%, Australia -4%.

Surprises: very weak France market, weak Australia, Canada. No surprise – good China, Korea.

 

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.