FOXTROTS
Fox – sly. Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.
Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.
Did you spot this? Some recent trends.
China to Japan
Is the long China/Japan face-off ending? Arrivals in Japan from China in the first two months grew 99%. That helped Japan to report an extraordinary 43% growth in total arrivals over Jan-Feb. That’s the good news. The bad is that outbound travel continues to crumble – down 6% over Jan-Feb.
Korea’s outbound overtakes Japan’s
It happened much faster and much bigger than I expected. Korea is now a bigger outbound travel market than Japan. Jan-Feb: 2.5mn from Japan; 3.3mn from Korea.
China’s airlines – big and fast
Phew! Air China’s international business grew 21% in the first two months. It was China’s No3 airline. At this rate will it overtake China Eastern this year? Ah, no. CE grew at 23%! What about the leader (and Asia’s biggest), China Southern? Only +20%…
Robots don’t answer questions
The best report I have seen on the robot-staffed hotel in Japan is in the current edition of Net Value. And it’s short (the article, not the robot). I am biased, being the editor. I just hope that Kokoro will not make their robots too life-like. Because, according to my experience with Kokoro, the robots will not respond to questions…
Air Asia Q4
Air Asia’s India operation seems to be starting well. Seat factor at 84%, the highest of AA’s six airlines, and seat sales were 70% above its first operating Q, Q3. However, Q4 was bad for the group – growing only 2% – following falls in seat sales for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines.
US inbound, outbound
-In. Growth 7%, and +8% for the overseas markets (non Canada, Mexico). Best was Mexico, representing around 23% of the total – and growing at 20%! That overall growth hides the fact that two or the top-4 markets were falling – Canada, Japan. The other, the UK, was +3%. US out. Total +10%. The big item was travel to Mexico.
-Out. There seems to be a mutual pact with Mexico, with outbound +22% matching the +20% inbound-from-Mexico. That growth makes Mexico 37% of the total. Europe and Asia Pacific were each +4%, but the Caribbean (smaller than Europe but bigger than AsPac) was +10%.
China
-In. Earlier official counts do not add up to the 2014 total now given. My counts show foreign (passport holders) visitors were flat (+0.5%). Of the biggest sources: Koreans +5%, Japanese -6%, US nationals +0.4%. But note the distortion – an American national living in Hong Kong, for example, is counted as being from the US.
-Out. A storming end to the year, after some weak earlier months. I estimate the total grew 14%.
Wrap-up
Some noteworthy 2014 results*: -Visitor arrivals. Full-year – Japan +29%! Korea +18%! Taiwan +23%! YTD Asia Pacific regional +5%. -International seat sales. Full-year – Air China +18%! China Southern +21%! -Outbound travel, YTD, our estimates. China +14%, India +1%, Asia Pacific regional +9%. *A report in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here
The Fox
Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.
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