FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Did you spot this? Some recent trends.

China to Japan

Is the long China/Japan face-off ending? Arrivals in Japan from China in the first two months grew 99%. That helped Japan to report an extraordinary 43% growth in total arrivals over Jan-Feb. That’s the good news. The bad is that outbound travel continues to crumble – down 6% over Jan-Feb.

 

Korea’s outbound overtakes Japan’s

It happened much faster and much bigger than I expected. Korea is now a bigger outbound travel market than Japan. Jan-Feb: 2.5mn from Japan; 3.3mn from Korea.

 

China’s airlines – big and fast

Phew! Air China’s international business grew 21% in the first two months. It was China’s No3 airline. At this rate will it overtake China Eastern this year? Ah, no. CE grew at 23%! What about the leader (and Asia’s biggest), China Southern? Only +20%…

 

Robots don’t answer questions

The best report I have seen on the robot-staffed hotel in Japan is in the current edition of Net Value. And it’s short (the article, not the robot). I am biased, being the editor. I just hope that Kokoro will not make their robots too life-like. Because, according to my experience with Kokoro, the robots will not respond to questions…

 

Air Asia Q4

Air Asia’s India operation seems to be starting well. Seat factor at 84%, the highest of AA’s six airlines, and seat sales were 70% above its first operating Q, Q3. However, Q4 was bad for the group – growing only 2% – following falls in seat sales for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines.

 

US inbound, outbound

-In. Growth 7%, and +8% for the overseas markets (non Canada, Mexico). Best was Mexico, representing around 23% of the total – and growing at 20%! That overall growth hides the fact that two or the top-4 markets were falling – Canada, Japan. The other, the UK, was +3%. US out. Total +10%. The big item was travel to Mexico.

-Out. There seems to be a mutual pact with Mexico, with outbound +22% matching the +20% inbound-from-Mexico. That growth makes Mexico 37% of the total. Europe and Asia Pacific were each +4%, but the Caribbean (smaller than Europe but bigger than AsPac) was +10%.

 

China

-In. Earlier official counts do not add up to the 2014 total now given. My counts show foreign (passport holders) visitors were flat (+0.5%). Of the biggest sources: Koreans +5%, Japanese -6%, US nationals +0.4%. But note the distortion – an American national living in Hong Kong, for example, is counted as being from the US.

-Out. A storming end to the year, after some weak earlier months. I estimate the total grew 14%.

 

Wrap-up

Some noteworthy 2014 results*: -Visitor arrivals. Full-year – Japan +29%! Korea +18%! Taiwan +23%! YTD Asia Pacific regional +5%. -International seat sales. Full-year – Air China +18%! China Southern +21%! -Outbound travel, YTD, our estimates. China +14%, India +1%, Asia Pacific regional +9%. *A report in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here

 

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.