Major events damage tourism?

FOXTROTS

Fox – sly

Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance. 

 

2005 September 30

Major events damage tourism? Big Event Blues.

 

I have this theory that I call the Big Event Blues.

 

This semi-serious theory suggests that sizeable international events (such as the Summer Olympic Games, soccer’s World Cup) actually depress visitor numbers, and do not produce a travel boom – despite wide claims to the contrary.

 

Although these events may attract international visitors, many traditional travellers (such as business travellers and even holidaymakers) will stay away from that destination just before, during, and just after the event. They assume that there will be too much disruption to normal movement in the destination. In general, they are right – not only is movement curtailed, but many prices, particularly hotels, are higher.

 

I started this at the time of the handover from British to Chinese rule over Hong Kong. At the start of 1997, I said that there would be a fall in visitors in Hong Kong in July, the first month of Chinese rule.

 

My proposal was ridiculed – partly because it was not politically correct as far as Hong Kong was concerned to suggest that something might not be wonderful under the new rulers.

 

My prediction turned out to be correct, leading me to note that there would be an increase the following July – based on the Dead Cat Bounce theory, borrowed from the financial world.

 

As the next Summer Olympics came up, I looked again. And visitor numbers fell over the whole year. And so they did in all subsequent Olympics, including Athens and even including Sydney – still widely regarded as a huge success for Australia.

 

Hotel occupancy in all four Olympic-host cities before Athens fell in the year of their games by two points in Seoul, three in Barcelona, four in Atlanta, and two in Sydney. And then in the year following the games there was further decline – Seoul was down one point, Barcelona collapsed by 13 points, Atlanta by four, and Sydney eight.

 

The Fox