Visitor forecasts; Europe outbound travel; Eurotunnel’s ups and downs.

 

 

FOXTROTS

 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. 

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

 

November 9 2011

 

 

Visitor forecasts; Europe outbound travel; Eurotunnel’s ups and downs.

 

 

[] My fiddling with figures:

I maintain that visitor arrivals counts should always be compared with the population numbers, not just with previous years. After all, the 1bn expected in 2012 would not have been possible in times past, because there was not that number of people in the world.

 

So, I estimate there looks likely to have been a growth this year – from 13.5% of the population in 2010, to 13.9% this year. And according to expectations for 2012, it will grow again, to 14.2%.

 

In terms of growth, the visitor business took 18 years to grow from 500mn arrivals to 1bn (if that is achieved in 2012). And on WTO forecasts, it will take 13 years to add the next 500mn, and then nine more years for the growth to 2bn.

 

 

[] Europe’s outbound travel looks shakey. First-half for some of the more important markets – Austria -8%, France flat, Germany -7%. And Q1 for Denmark +9%, but Sweden -13% and UK -1%. (I extrapolate data from Eurostat; details in current issue of Travel Business Analyst.)

 

 

[] Funny that. For years, Eurostar train traffic has been growing as car traffic through the Eurotunnel has been falling. Now the reverse is happening! Eurostar down 2% in Q3, cars up 4%. However, I calculate car traffic is still 30% below its peak, in 1999; train traffic is still ahead YTD.

 

 

 

The Fox